The explosive growth of data centers is posing a significant threat to North America's electrical grid stability this winter, according to a recent warning from industry overseer, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC).
NERC's latest report indicates that electricity demand across the continent is projected to rise by 2.5% this winter, reaching a total of 20 gigawatts—a notable increase compared to the typical 1% or less growth seen in recent years.
A substantial portion of this escalating demand is attributed to data centers, particularly in regions experiencing rapid development such as the mid-Atlantic, U.S. West, and U.S. Southeast. Mark Olson, NERC's manager of reliability assessments, told E&E News that these are "areas where a lot of data center development is occurring."
Texas, in particular, is singled out in the NERC report for its data center expansion, which is "contributing to continued risk of supply shortfalls." This warning carries particular weight for Texans, who vividly recall the massive power outages suffered during an intense cold snap nearly five years ago.
During the February 2021 crisis, natural gas power plants tripped offline due to frozen wellheads, severely cutting gas supply while demand for heating soared. Despite the governor's public blame on wind turbines, internal knowledge confirmed they were a minor factor compared to natural gas shortages.
NERC suggests the situation in Texas this winter may not be as dire as 2021, largely due to the significant addition of battery storage to the state's grid. These batteries can quickly provide electricity if gas-fired plants falter and react faster than traditional "peaker" power plants, which typically run on natural gas and require several minutes to power up.
However, Texas is not entirely in the clear. While most deployed batteries can supply power for a few hours—ideal for typical evening demand peaks—data centers draw electricity consistently throughout the day. NERC warns that maintaining sufficient charge to power all customers, including data centers, during a prolonged cold snap will present a considerable challenge.
If this winter passes without a major storm, NERC anticipates no widespread issues with any regional electrical grid. Yet, the organization highlights a concerning trend: four severe storms have impacted the grid in the last five years. Should another severe storm strike, grid operators might be forced to import electricity, request large customers to reduce consumption, or, as a last resort, implement rolling blackouts to prevent a system collapse.
