YouTube appears to be adjusting its Shorts recommendation algorithm, reportedly shifting its focus to prioritize newer content over older, "evergreen" videos. According to analysts working with some of the platform's largest channels, this change, which began around mid-September, significantly deprioritizes Shorts older than approximately 30 days. While YouTube has not officially confirmed any algorithm modifications, these observations point to a potentially significant shift for creators and content strategists.
Analysts Identify a Major Shift
Mario Joos, a retention strategist who advises top creators like MrBeast, Stokes Twins, and Alan's Universe, was among the first to identify this pattern. After weeks of observing a widespread dip in performance across his clients' channels, Joos delved into the data. As Dot Esports reported, his analysis of channels generating 100 million to one billion monthly views revealed a consistent decline in impressions for older Shorts.
Joos described the change as a "flattening," noting that YouTube's short-form content algorithm has seemingly "changed for the worse." His data pinpointed a threshold around 28-30 days, after which Shorts now receive considerably fewer impressions than they did before mid-September. This pattern wasn't immediately obvious in overall channel analytics, as the performance of newer content often masked the decline. However, by filtering specifically for Shorts posted before the 30-day mark, the trend became starkly clear.
Joos shared a graph illustrating the sharp drop-off for seven major Shorts channels, though he withheld their names for client confidentiality. Each chart showed the same consistent trend: around September, the view counts for older Shorts plummeted and remained significantly lower than previous levels.
🚨Important thread: The YouTube algorithm actually changed, for the worse. (+Data)
I’ve been thinking a lot about whether I should or shouldn’t address this publicly. I’ve already talked to some people within YouTube, but I don’t believe the word of a single person, meaning me,… pic.twitter.com/6RAz0u0A1d
— Mario Joos (@MarioJoos) November 30, 2023
While acknowledging his uncertainty and calling it "a carefully constructed working theory and not a confirmed fact," Joos suggests YouTube is pushing creators towards high-volume uploads, potentially at the expense of quality. He understands this from a corporate perspective as a competitive response to TikTok but warns of its disproportionate impact on creators reliant on Shorts income. Some commenters on his analysis corroborated his findings, while others reported not experiencing similar drops.
Creators Confirm the Pattern
Tim Chesney, a creator boasting two billion lifetime views across his channels, also confirmed the pattern on X. He stated:
“Can confirm this is true. 2B views on this chart, and in September all of the evergreen videos simply tanked. I think pushing fresh content makes sense, but when you think about it, it makes investing into your content and spending time improving it, irrelevant.”
Chesney argues that this shift incentivizes creators to "produce more instead of better," cautioning that if the trend continues, YouTube could become a "trash bin" of low-effort content, akin to what he observes on TikTok. These concerns echo earlier worries from August, when various creators documented synchronized view drops linked to other platform modifications, such as changes in how YouTube counted views from ad-blocking browsers. However, the September Shorts shift appears to be a distinct change affecting the recommendation algorithm itself, rather than just view counting methodology.
The Eroding Value Proposition of Evergreen Content
For years, a core appeal of video content has been its compounding value. Unlike fleeting, trend-dependent posts, evergreen videos are designed to generate views and revenue long after their initial publication. This model allows a single production investment to pay off over months or even years, making it central to how creators and businesses justify their video investments. A well-made tutorial or how-to guide, for instance, was expected to attract viewers and accumulate views as search demand persisted.
A recency-focused algorithm fundamentally undermines this economic model. If older Shorts cease generating impressions after approximately 30 days, the value equation dramatically changes. Creators would be compelled to publish continuously to maintain visibility, shifting resources from focusing on quality to prioritizing sheer quantity. This creates a punishing economic treadmill: instead of building a valuable content library that works passively, creators face a constant demand for new output, with last month's content quickly becoming obsolete in terms of discoverability. Revenue would then depend on relentless production rather than accumulated assets.
Broader Implications for Content Strategy
This reported change in the YouTube Shorts algorithm mirrors a familiar pattern for those observing the evolution of Google Search. Freshness signals have long played a role in search rankings, sometimes seemingly overriding comprehensive, well-researched content. For SEO professionals, this extends beyond YouTube. Video strategy has often been positioned as a hedge against the volatility of organic search. As AI Overviews and zero-click results increasingly reduce traffic from traditional search engines, YouTube has represented an alternative channel with distinct dynamics.
If YouTube is indeed applying a similar "freshness-over-quality" logic, it alters the risk assessment for content investment. Practitioners evaluating where to allocate their content resources might find similar frustrations emerging across both Google Search and YouTube, challenging the notion of YouTube as a stable alternative.
This situation also highlights a persistent issue in Google's communication with creators. Despite the existence of YouTube's Creator Liaison position, designed to bridge the gap between the platform and its users, analysts and creators consistently report limited transparency regarding algorithm changes. The company rarely confirms or explains modifications until long after creators have identified them through their own data analysis.
What This Means for Creators and Marketers
The core value proposition of evergreen Shorts relies on their long-tail performance. A definitive shift toward recency-based ranking would necessitate a higher publishing frequency to maintain comparable visibility. Content practitioners who are already frustrated with Google Search volatility might find similar dynamics now emerging on YouTube. The promise of a stable, alternative content channel appears less reliable if algorithm changes can abruptly devalue an entire content library.
This also impacts how professionals advise clients considering video investment. The traditional pitch of "build once, earn forever" requires significant qualification if evergreen content effectively has a shelf life of just 30 days.
What to Do Now
If you publish YouTube Shorts, it is crucial to check your analytics for any view declines on content older than 30 days. Compare performance from mid-September onwards against previous months, paying close attention to videos that historically demonstrated steady, long-tail engagement. The pattern identified by Joos spans channels of diverse sizes and categories, suggesting a platform-wide change rather than isolated performance issues. Regardless of official acknowledgment from YouTube, the data reported by these analysts indicates a significant shift worth closely monitoring.
YouTube's Official Stance
As of now, YouTube has not confirmed any changes to its Shorts ranking algorithm. Without official documentation, these remain observations from analysts and reports from creators.
During Google's Q3 earnings call, Philipp Schindler mentioned that recommendation systems are "driving robust watch time growth" and that Gemini models are enabling "further discovery improvement." However, the company did not specify how these improvements affect content distribution or whether recency now plays a more prominent role in recommendations for Shorts.
