The latest venture capital data from Carta paints a clear picture of the current funding landscape: while the total capital invested has surged dramatically, the number of deals remains largely stagnant. This trend, observed over the past 18 months, indicates a significant concentration of capital, particularly benefiting top-tier AI companies. According to new insights from Carta's analysis, which covers 11,041 primary rounds raised by US startups from Q1 2023 through Q4 2025, the venture market is experiencing a profound shift:
  • Dollars invested (Q1 2023 - Q4 2025): Up 130% (from $12.8 billion to $29.5 billion)
  • Number of deals (Q1 2023 - Q4 2025): Up just 3% (from 802 to 823)
This data suggests that venture capital is "back with a vengeance," but primarily for established, high-performing companies, rather than a broad resurgence across the startup ecosystem.

VC Rounds Are Significantly Larger

Venture capitalists aren't closing more deals; instead, they are writing much larger checks. The average primary round size on Carta has nearly doubled, jumping from approximately $16 million in Q1 2023 to $36 million by Q4 2025. This means a similar number of funding rounds are occurring, but each involves substantially more capital. This trend confirms the "bifurcation" in the market that has been discussed for the past two years, now evident in concrete figures.

Winners Attract More Capital

Examining the quarterly progression reveals a consistent pattern. After a low point of 734 deals in Q1 2024 (dubbed the "nuclear winter quarter"), the deal count has hovered steadily in the 800-1,000 range. There has been no dramatic influx of new deals. However, the capital deployed has shown a robust upward trajectory:
  • Q1 2024: $24.0 billion
  • Q2 2024: $24.2 billion
  • Q3 2024: $23.4 billion
  • Q4 2024: $22.7 billion
  • Q1 2025: $23.5 billion
  • Q2 2025: $23.7 billion
  • Q4 2025: $29.5 billion
The $29.5 billion invested in Q4 2025 represents the highest quarterly figure in the entire dataset, surpassing any point since the peak of 2021.

Implications for Founders Fundraising

For founders navigating the current fundraising environment, these trends have distinct implications:
  • For top-tier companies: An unprecedented amount of capital is available. VCs are holding record levels of dry powder and are aggressively deploying it into their highest-conviction bets. The best Series A and B rounds are closing with favorable terms and multiple term sheets.
  • For all other companies: The market has seen little improvement. The number of companies securing funding remains largely flat. The bulk of the additional capital is flowing exclusively to a relatively small group of established winners.
This explains why some founders report fundraising has "never been easier," while others find it "impossible." Both perspectives are accurate, reflecting their position within these divergent market segments.

The AI Effect on Valuations

It's impossible to analyze this data without acknowledging the profound impact of Artificial Intelligence. AI-driven companies are responsible for a significant portion of these larger checks. A single AI infrastructure startup raising $500 million to $1 billion in a round can dramatically skew average investment figures. Beyond mega-rounds, even at the Series A stage, AI-native companies are commanding valuations and round sizes two to three times greater than their non-AI counterparts. Capital is clearly following the perceived opportunity in AI.

Not a Venture Recovery, But a Concentration

The current market dynamic is not a broad venture recovery; it is a venture concentration. The number of startups receiving funding is comparable to two years ago, but those that do secure investment are receiving substantially more capital. The disparity between funded and unfunded startups has never been wider. For founders building truly differentiated solutions, especially in the AI space, this is an opportune market. However, for those developing incremental improvements in existing categories, the fundraising environment largely mirrors the challenges of 2023. The data unequivocally shows more money chasing the same number of deals. This is not a rising tide lifting all boats; it's a scenario where a few boats are transforming into yachts, while many others remain anchored in the harbor.

Data Source: Carta, Q1 2023-Q4 2025