The notion of an "open" IPO window for tech companies is being challenged by recent market dynamics, as evidenced by several high-profile SaaS firms. While the path to public markets may technically be available, the valuations and investor expectations have undergone a significant reset, leading to a stark reality for many. This shift is particularly clear in the cases of OneStream, Navan, and JAMF, where public market performance has often fallen short of private market aspirations, paving the way for a surge in private equity takeovers.

OneStream's Brief Stint as a Public Company

Just 17 months after its Initial Public Offering (IPO), OneStream, a robust enterprise SaaS company, announced its return to private ownership. KKR initially took OneStream public in July 2024 with a $6 billion valuation, seeing its stock open 29% above its $20 listing price. This event was widely celebrated as a sign that the IPO market was "open" once more. However, the celebratory mood was short-lived for public investors. In January 2026, Hg Capital acquired OneStream for $6.4 billion. While this represented a 31% premium over its recent trading price, it's crucial to note that the stock had previously plummeted 35% from its IPO highs. Consequently, OneStream shareholders received $24 per share, which was less than its opening price on day one. Despite boasting over $500 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), mid-20s growth, and a client roster including Toyota, UPS, and General Dynamics, the IPO primarily benefited KKR, its initial private equity backer, rather than public market participants.

Navan's Sobering Public Debut

The journey for Navan, a travel and expense management platform, proved even more challenging. After years of delays and confidential filings, Navan finally went public on October 30, 2025. Its debut was met with immediate disappointment, as the stock dropped 20% on day one. Currently, it trades around $17, a substantial 32% below its $25 IPO price. The financial trajectory for Navan paints a clear picture of market recalibration:
  • Last private round valuation: $9.2 billion (October 2022)
  • Targeted IPO valuation: $12 billion (early 2023 projections)
  • Actual IPO valuation: $6.2 billion
  • Current market capitalization: Approximately $4 billion
  • Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR): Approximately $800 million
  • Current multiple: 4-5x ARR
Despite its impressive fundamentals—nearly $800 million in ARR, almost 30% growth, 71% gross margins, and over 10,000 customers like Unilever, Adobe, and OpenAI (with its AI assistant Ava handling 54% of customer interactions)—Navan trades at a mere 4x ARR. This suggests that while Navan is a strong company, the public market for non-AI B2B software has become exceptionally demanding.

JAMF: A Cautionary Tale of Decelerating Growth

Another compelling example is JAMF, a leader in Apple device management, which went private in late 2025 for $2.2 billion, acquired by Francisco Partners at a multiple of 3.1-3.3x ARR. What makes this particularly striking is JAMF's growth since its July 2020 IPO: its ARR tripled from $225 million to $710 million, and it serves over 75,000 customers. Yet, the company was acquired for less than half its day-one IPO valuation. The primary factor? Its growth rate was cut in half, decelerating from 35-40% at IPO to 10-15% today. Furthermore, JAMF continues to report GAAP losses. This illustrates a critical market lesson: public investors prioritize growth rate over absolute revenue, valuing a smaller company with high growth more than a larger one with slower expansion.

The "Open" IPO Window: A Brutally Honest Reality

While venture capitalists often point to companies like ServiceTitan, CoreWeave, Figma, and Klaviyo as evidence that "IPOs are back," the reality is more nuanced. The window may be open for companies to go public, but it comes with significant caveats:
  1. You can go public: The regulatory hurdles are surmountable, and exchanges like Nasdaq are ready to list new companies.
  2. Expect a haircut: Companies are facing substantial valuation reductions. Navan saw a 65% haircut from its peak private valuation, JAMF traded down 65% from its IPO before going private, and OneStream's stock fell 35% before its take-private deal.
  3. Multiples have permanently reset: The SaaS Capital Index shows median public SaaS multiples at 6-7x ARR, a return to 2016-2017 levels. Crucially, the spread is widening, with top-tier companies commanding 15-20x ARR while the bottom quartile trades at a meager 2-4x. Simply being a SaaS company no longer guarantees a premium valuation; it's a "rich get richer" market.

Private Equity's Resurgent Role

Amidst this challenging public market, private equity (PE) firms are actively deploying capital, turning the "take-private" machine into a hot trend. Recent examples include:
  • OneStream: Acquired by Hg Capital for $6.4 billion (January 2026)
  • JAMF: Acquired by Francisco Partners for $2.2 billion (October 2025)
  • Verint Systems: Taken private by Thoma Bravo
  • ForgeRock: Acquired by Thoma Bravo
  • Duck Creek: Purchased by Vista Equity
According to PitchBook, global private-equity investment in enterprise software surged 28% year-to-date in 2025. PE firms are leveraging the lower public market valuations, confident they can acquire these businesses at 3-5x ARR, optimize costs, improve margins, and generate returns over a 5-7 year holding period. Essentially, private equity is signaling that many 2022 private valuations were inflated, offering a more realistic assessment of a company's true worth.

Key Takeaways for Founders

The current market environment presents several critical lessons for founders:
  1. Your last private round valuation is likely your ceiling: Founders should manage expectations, as down rounds are now normalized, and a flat round is considered a "win."
  2. Sustained growth is paramount for premium multiples: To command high valuations, companies need to demonstrate 25-40% growth at scale. Those below 20% growth will likely fetch 3-7x ARR, regardless of size.
  3. GAAP profitability is non-negotiable: While non-GAAP profitability might look good, public investors in 2025-2026 demand GAAP profitability. Companies like Navan, despite being non-GAAP profitable, still show significant GAAP operating losses due to factors like stock-based compensation.
  4. The IPO journey is longer and tougher: The path from confidential filing to actual IPO can take years, as Navan's experience shows. Even after going public, companies like OneStream might find themselves back in private hands quickly.
  5. AI remains the exception: Companies focused on AI infrastructure, models, or agents are still attracting premium valuations that defy gravity. For everyone else, the grind for 5-7x ARR multiples continues.

The Brutally Honest IPO Window

The IPO window isn't closed, but it has become "brutally honest." OneStream's decision to go private after 17 months isn't a failure of the company itself but a reflection that public markets in 2025-2026 no longer reward steady, predictable B2B growth with the same enthusiasm as private markets once did. Navan's 4x ARR valuation, despite being a category leader, highlights the market's disinterest in non-AI narratives. Similarly, JAMF's acquisition at 3.1x ARR after tripling revenue underscores the harsh reality of growth deceleration in a multiple-compressed market. For founders, the message is unequivocal: the bar has permanently moved. Achieving 30%+ growth with GAAP profitability might secure a decent IPO. Otherwise, private equity stands ready to acquire at 3-5x ARR and drive profitability themselves. Those who raised at inflated valuations in 2021-2022 must now recalibrate expectations. The market has evolved, and while the grind to IPO is harder, the returns are still there for companies that truly deserve them, particularly those at the forefront of AI innovation like Databricks, Stripe, and Anthropic. For others, even successful SaaS companies, the "open" IPO window is, at best, only sort of, kind of open.