A significant shift in the social media landscape appears to be underway, as new data suggests Meta's Threads is increasingly outperforming X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, in daily active users. This potential 'changing of the guard' marks a pivotal moment in the ongoing competition between the two text-based social networks.

Threads Gains Ground According to Similarweb Data

According to recent insights published by Similarweb, Threads reportedly surpassed X in daily active mobile users as early as September of last year. The data indicates that Threads has since continued to widen its lead, despite X experiencing occasional spikes in activity around major news events.

Threads' growing momentum can be attributed to several factors. The platform has seen an increase in engagement from sports leagues and celebrities, a demographic that was once a hallmark of Twitter. Additionally, Threads is refining its algorithms to improve real-time event coverage and amplify more newsworthy content, enhancing its appeal as a dynamic information source.

X's Shifting Focus and Data Transparency Concerns

Meanwhile, X has increasingly focused on integrating its Grok AI chatbot, leading to a proliferation of AI-generated posts in users' feeds. This strategic shift may be contributing to the observed divergence in user activity. However, understanding the true state of X's user base is complicated by a lack of transparent, auditable data.

As a privately held company, X's user metrics are not subject to public scrutiny, allowing the platform to make claims that are difficult to verify. For instance, X currently asserts it has 600 million monthly active users (MAU), a figure significantly higher than Twitter's peak of 336 million MAU in Q1 2018, before Elon Musk's acquisition. This is despite Musk himself previously speculating that at least 20% of users were bots, which he pledged to eradicate.

If Musk's bot eradication efforts were successful, X's real MAU base in 2022 would have started around 294 million. Yet, by July 2023, he claimed 540 million MAU, which then supposedly ballooned to 600 million. These claims stand in contrast to official documentation from X itself, which has shown decreased usage in some reports, and consistent declines in third-party analyses like Similarweb's.

Nuance in Data: What the Numbers Really Mean

It's crucial to approach these figures with an understanding of their limitations. Similarweb's data, while comprehensive, is based on estimates extrapolated from a vast pool of data resources, including first-party analytics from millions of websites and apps. Therefore, these statistics are indicative of trends rather than definitive, audited counts.

Furthermore, the reported lead for Threads primarily concerns daily active mobile users. X still reportedly holds an advantage in web usage, and the more commonly cited metric for social media performance is monthly active users (MAU), where X officially claims a higher number (600 million) compared to Threads' reported 400 million MAU.

Implications for Marketers and User Engagement

For marketers, the ultimate question isn't solely which platform has more users overall, but rather where their specific target audience is most active and engaged. While the broader trend suggests Threads is gaining ground, a marketer's priority should remain on reaching their core demographic effectively.

However, a recent revelation from X's head of product, Nikita Bier, indicated that the average X user views only 20-30 posts per day. This figure seems remarkably low and could imply limited engagement, even among active users, which is a critical consideration for content visibility and campaign effectiveness.

While definitive internal data from X remains elusive, the accumulating external evidence points towards Threads steadily closing the gap, and potentially surpassing X in key engagement metrics. The competition between these platforms is intensifying, reshaping the future of real-time text-based social media.